8 Emerging Markets for the Spanish Olive Oil Sector in 2025

The olive oil sector in Spain faces a landscape of striking contrasts: while Albania consumes 8.7 kg of olive oil per capita, important markets such as Japan and the United States barely reach 0.4 kg and 1.1 kg, respectively.

Despite recent record prices, the olive oil market in Spain shows signs of stabilizing, with cumulative production reaching 1,391,019 tons by February 2025 and stocks exceeding one million tons. However, to maintain growth, we need to look beyond traditional markets.

The combined population of just four emerging markets—Japan, Brazil, the United States, and Canada—exceeds 710 million potential consumers. Even more impressive, China, with its 1.4 billion inhabitants, consumes barely 53,000 tons of olive oil, demonstrating extraordinary growth potential for the Spanish olive oil sector.

China: The Sleeping Giant of Olive Oil Consumption

China represents the sleeping giant of the global market for the Spanish olive oil sector, with barely tapped potential. Despite its population of 1.4 billion, current consumption barely reaches 53,000 tons per year, reflecting a market that is just beginning to awaken.

Current Olive Oil Consumption in China

In 2023, China will import approximately 52,196 tons of olive oil, maintaining an upward trend over the past five years. Spain clearly dominates this market, accounting for 82% of imports in 2019. Furthermore, it ranks seventh in importance for Spanish olive oil exports.

However, per capita consumption figures reveal the enormous growth potential: each Chinese inhabitant consumes only 0.042 kg of olive oil per year, a negligible amount compared to Mediterranean countries. This reality makes China a niche market, concentrated mainly in large cities and among middle-to-high-income consumers.

Olive oil distribution in China follows traditional patterns, with supermarkets leading sales (64%), followed by hypermarkets and traditional retailers (15% each). The online channel, although growing, represents only 4.1% of total sales. Furthermore, a curious phenomenon in the Chinese market is that up to 60% of olive oil sales are made as gifts, especially during the Chinese New Year.

Factors Limiting the Growth of the Chinese Market

- Several obstacles are hindering the expansion of olive oil in China:

- Price barrier: Olive oil can cost up to 10 times more than traditional Chinese oils, making it a luxury product that is inaccessible to a large part of the population.

- Deep ignorance: Only one in ten people in large cities has heard of olive oil, and they often associate it with cosmetics rather than food.

- Culinary incompatibility: Traditional Chinese cuisine does not consider the use of olive oil, as vegetables are rarely consumed raw. Even in homes where it is purchased, it is often consumed medicinally, by the teaspoonful on an empty stomach.

- Sensory aversion: A revealing fact is that 66% of Chinese consumers surveyed dislike the distinctive flavor of Spanish olive oil.

- Inadequate regulation: Chinese regulations do not adequately recognize the classification of extra virgin olive oil, making quality assessment difficult.

Opportunities for Spanish olive oil in China

Despite the challenges, the outlook is encouraging. Demand for olive oil is projected to grow 20% in value and over 30% in volume by 2024. Looking ahead, estimates suggest that China could import around 180,000 tons of olive oil by 2030, becoming a crucial market for the olive oil sector in Spain.

Growing health concerns among Chinese consumers are the main driver of this growth. Olive oil is perceived as a premium product with health benefits, a positioning that new marketing campaigns funded by the European Union are reinforcing.

The Chinese market is primarily segmented into two groups: gift buyers (especially during the holidays) and affluent urban consumers looking for healthy options. If average per capita consumption were to increase to just 0.1 kg, total consumption would reach 145,000 tons, almost tripling the current figure.

To conquer this market, digital strategies are essential. An effective approach includes developing websites in Chinese, utilizing local social media, and positioning themselves on search engines like Baidu. Likewise, collaborating with local influencers (Key Opinion Leaders) can build trust and visibility. Participating in Live Commerce, very popular on platforms like Taobao Live or WeChat Live, represents another innovative opportunity.

Spanish olive oil enjoys a good reputation in China thanks to its recognized quality, although it still competes with Italy for perceptual leadership. However, Spain's privileged position as the main supplier offers a solid foundation for increasing its presence and definitively conquering this sleeping giant, which promises to become one of the most important markets for analyzing the Spanish olive oil sector in the coming decades.

Brazil: A growing market with a Mediterranean affinity

Brazil is emerging as a strategic hub for the Spanish olive oil sector, thanks to its cultural affinity with Mediterranean cuisine and a constantly expanding market. As the world's fifth-largest importer of olive oil and second among non-producing countries, Brazil represents an exceptional opportunity for Spanish exporters.

Olive Oil Consumption Trends in Brazil

The Brazilian market has experienced sustained growth in recent years. According to Euromonitor forecasts, an average annual increase of 13.2% in value is expected between 2022 and 2027, equivalent to a cumulative growth of 86.1% for that period. In terms of volume, an average annual increase of 6.3% is projected over the same period.

Although Brazil is one of the largest consumers of olive oil outside the Mediterranean basin, per capita consumption is still relatively low, standing at 0.55 liters in 2022, far from the 12 liters reached in countries like Spain or Italy. However, this figure reveals the enormous growth potential of the market.

The trend toward healthier eating habits is driving olive oil consumption in Brazil. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the product's presence on Brazilian supermarket shelves has increased, driven in part by growing health concerns.

An interesting aspect of the Brazilian consumer is their preference for milder flavors with less heat or bitterness, which represents an important consideration for Spanish exporters wishing to penetrate this market.

Growth Potential for Spanish Exporters

Spain is positioned as the second-largest supplier of olive oil to Brazil, accounting for more than 16% of imports, behind only Portugal, which accounts for 58%. However, Spain has shown significant progress: during the first nine months of 2023, while Portugal grew modestly by 2.75%, Spain increased its sales by 18% in volume.

Spanish olive oil exports to Brazil reached €90.5 million in 2023, with annual growth of 6%. Brazil has become the sixth-largest consumer of olive oil in the world, according to the International Olive Council.

Although prices have increased considerably (Spanish oil entered Brazil at an average of €9.28 per kilo in 2023, compared to €5.87 in 2022), this has not slowed growth, indicating the strength of demand.

For Spanish exporters, these are the main opportunities:

- Local Brazilian production, although growing, represents less than 1% of national consumption.

- Promotional campaigns have begun to bear fruit. The "Olive Oils from Spain, the most awarded in the world" initiative has reinforced the image of the quality of Spanish products.

- The perception of Spanish olive oil is very positive, ranking it as the second most preferred source of origin for Brazilian consumers, behind only Portugal.

The Brazilian market, with an estimated potential of fifty million consumers, represents one of the most promising opportunities for the olive oil sector in Spain by 2025.

Japan: Culinary tradition open to healthy innovation

Japan stands out as a strategic market for the Spanish olive oil sector, consolidating its position as the third largest importer outside of Europe and the eleventh largest destination for Spanish olive oil exports. Despite its geographical distance and culinary differences, Japan shows a surprising openness to this Mediterranean product.

Per capita olive oil consumption in Japan

Olive oil consumption in Japan currently reaches 0.4 liters per capita per year, a modest figure compared to Mediterranean countries but significant for a nation where this product is not part of the traditional diet. According to estimates by the International Olive Council, approximately 64% of Japanese consume olive oil, although their purchase frequency is still low.

This reality determines important commercial aspects such as the most popular formats, with 250 and 500 ml bottles being common, as opposed to the larger containers that predominate in Spain. A revealing fact about market growth is that olive oil has reached 20% of domestic fat consumption in Japan, equaling traditional rapeseed oil.

The trend in consumption is especially favorable among middle-aged Japanese residents of Tokyo and other major cities. Furthermore, the use of skin and hair care products made with olive oil is growing among young women.

Interest in the Mediterranean diet and gourmet products

The proliferation of Western restaurants, especially Italian and Spanish, has facilitated Japanese society's familiarization with the Mediterranean diet. This phenomenon is creating a solid foundation for the expansion of olive oil, which is primarily perceived as a healthy product.

In 2021, a symposium dedicated to the Mediterranean Diet was held in Tokyo, highlighting the growing interest in this culinary culture. Both the Mediterranean and Japanese diets share important characteristics: both are healthy, varied, and sustainable, which facilitates the acceptance of olive oil.

Japanese consumers are open to new culinary trends and foreign products, gradually incorporating olive oil into their diet in a variety of ways: as a salad dressing, in Western and Japanese recipes, and even for desserts. An example of the product's popularity is the prestigious Olive Japan competition, which annually brings together the world's best olive oils.

Canada: A Premium Market with Conscious Consumers

Canada represents a solid market with significant potential for the olive oil sector in Spain, characterized by consumers who value quality and health benefits. Although it is not among the world's leading importers, its steady growth makes it a strategic target for Spanish exporters.

Profile of the Canadian Olive Oil Consumer

The Canadian market displays distinctive characteristics that define its consumers. Regarding gender, men consume more olive oil (55.6%) than women (44.4%). According to age structure, consumption increases progressively with age, with a predominance of people over 65 (39%).

Depending on family structure, consumption is highest in middle-aged families with children (28%), followed by singles, widows, and single-parent families (20%). Likewise, people with middle incomes consume more olive oil (52%) than those with high (26%) or low (22%) incomes.

A revealing fact about product perception: 50% of Canadians consume extra virgin olive oil, while 37% prefer olive oil. Ontario and Quebec are the provinces with the highest consumption due to their large populations, high levels of Mediterranean and Indian immigration, and their location on the east coast, closest to the Mediterranean.

Regarding usage habits, Canadians use olive oil primarily raw (70%), followed by cooking (24%), while very few use it for roasting (5%) or frying (1%). Furthermore, 99% of consumption occurs within the home.

Recent Imports from Spain

Spanish olive oil exports to Canada have shown impressive growth, increasing by 64.31% between 2018 and 2022, increasing their market share from 15% to 21%. Despite this progress, Spain currently ranks third as a supplier, behind Italy and Tunisia, with exports valued at 60 million Canadian dollars in 2022.

During the 2022/2023 season, Canada imported nearly 50,000 tons of olive oil and olive-pomace oil, of which more than 38,000 tons were virgin olive oils, with an estimated 97% being extra virgin.

According to recent data, in the first months of the 2023/2024 season (October 2023 to May 2024), Canadian olive oil imports increased by 1.4%, showing a positive trend even in a context of high prices.

Opportunities for Organic and Premium Oils

Canada offers excellent opportunities for premium and organic oils for several reasons. First, 67% of Canadians are more aware of the impact their diet has on their health since the start of the pandemic, which has boosted the popularity of the Mediterranean diet.

Furthermore, there is a growing interest in organic and premium-quality products. The organic olive oil market in North America represents approximately 20% of total consumption, with expectations of growing by 30% in the coming years.

Canada's multicultural society is also driving demand for specific certifications such as Kosher and Halal, opening up additional niches for Spanish producers.

Finally, olive oil consumption is not evenly distributed across Canada. Quebec is showing the greatest growth in imports due to its more European habits. This province, along with Ontario, represents an ideal gateway for high-end Spanish oils, as consumers in these regions are more familiar with Mediterranean cuisine and value the quality of Spanish products.

India: An Emerging Market with a Growing Middle Class

India's demographic and economic transformation offers a promising outlook for the olive oil sector in Spain. With more than 1.428 billion inhabitants and an average age of 27.3 years, this young and increasingly urbanized population represents an emerging market with significant potential.

Health and Nutrition Trends in India

The rising incidence of diseases such as obesity and high cholesterol is leading Indian consumers to choose healthier and more nutritious foods. Olive oil is making inroads into the edible oil sector thanks to its health-promoting properties, and is frequently prescribed by doctors to patients with cardiovascular disease.

The typical profile of olive oil consumers in India is people between 25 and 55 years old, of both genders, belonging to urban segments of the upper and upper-middle classes who are concerned about their health. Furthermore, the olive oil market in India presents positive growth prospects, with Spain positioning itself as the leading importer in both value and volume.

Cultural and Logistical Barriers

However, there are significant obstacles. Price is the most decisive factor for Indian consumers, who do not always differentiate between virgin, olive, and pomace oil. Furthermore, the tariff on this product ranges between 35% and 40%, depending on the tariff item.

An important cultural aspect is that Indian consumers use several oils simultaneously (palm, soybean, sunflower, mustard, among others). Interestingly, a significant percentage of olive oil is used for cosmetic and therapeutic purposes, and this perception is so widespread that even the lower-middle class makes an effort to purchase it to apply it to babies' skin.

Entry Strategies for Spanish Olive Oil

To conquer this market, Spanish companies must:

1. Properly manage distribution: While traditional oils are found in retail stores and kiranas, olive oil is sold mainly in mid-to-high-end supermarkets, the online channel, and HORECA (which accounts for 40% of total vegetable fat sales).

2. Define the geographic reach: The product's average price (€13 per liter) positions it as a premium product, primarily aimed at urban areas with greater purchasing power.

3. Promote adapted varieties: The distribution of "Extra Light" with a more neutral aroma could encourage consumption in Indian households.

Therefore, although India currently represents the fourth largest Asian destination for Andalusian liquid gold, the growth potential is enormous if the specificities of this market are understood and strategies are adapted to its unique characteristics.

South Korea: Culinary Innovation and Openness to New Flavors

South Korea is emerging as a fascinating market for the olive oil sector in Spain thanks to its growing interest in culinary innovation and healthy foods. With 51 million inhabitants and increasing purchasing power, this Asian country represents a strategic opportunity for Spanish exporters.

Current Consumption and Evolution of the Korean Market

The growth of the South Korean olive oil market has been spectacular in recent years. Between 2018 and 2022, cumulative consumption increased by 90%, reaching 30,000 tons in 2024. Spain clearly dominates this market with a 71.4% share in 2022, exporting oil worth more than €85.7 million that same year.

This increase in consumption is mainly due to two factors: the popularization of olive oil for its health benefits and the opening of a growing number of Western restaurants. Furthermore, South Korean consumers are beginning to appreciate the value for money of Spanish olive oil, which traditionally ranks second to Italian in terms of perceived quality.

Collaborations with chefs and fusion cuisine

Korean cuisine, traditionally rich in fermentation and intense flavors, is experiencing an openness to new ingredients. Chefs like Mingoo Kang, who worked at Spanish restaurants such as Zuberoa, Martín Berasategui, and El Bohío, are leading this innovation.

Likewise, Spanish chefs such as Bernat Plana, former Celler de Can Roca and professor at Woosong University in Korea, act as ambassadors for Spanish olive oil. These collaborations are generating an interesting culinary dialogue where olive oil provides "a delicious and innovative twist to traditional dishes."

Positioning Olive Oil as a Superfood

In Korea's increasingly health-conscious society, olive oil is gaining popularity as a superfood. Rich in monounsaturated fats and antioxidants, it is associated with numerous health benefits.

Consequently, online sales have grown to over 16% of total sales, driven by the wealth of information available on e-commerce platforms. Educational campaigns are essential to combat the existing misinformation about the qualities and uses of olive oil, especially through local influencers, whose opinions are highly valued by Korean consumers.

Mexico: Cultural Proximity and Favorable Trade Agreements

The historical ties and cultural proximity between Mexico and Spain create a privileged environment for the Spanish olive oil sector in this Latin American market, reinforced by recent trade agreements that facilitate its expansion.

Olive Oil Imports in Mexico

In 2023, Mexico reached its all-time high in olive oil import value. Despite the drop in volume during 2022 and 2023 due to poor European harvests, imported value continued to grow thanks to rising prices. Spain maintains its undisputed leadership in this market, with historic shares between 80% and 90%, making it the preferred supplier for Mexican consumers.

European "liquid gold" is recognized by 99% of Mexicans surveyed, leading the way compared to other vegetable oils. Furthermore, eight out of ten olive oil connoisseurs report having purchased it in the last three months. A revealing fact: 56% of Mexican consumers consider Spanish olive oils to be of the highest quality.

Influence of Mediterranean Cuisine

Mediterranean cuisine has gained significant presence in Mexico. Both Mexican and Mediterranean cuisines share the privilege of being designated as Universal Intangible Heritage of Humanity by UNESCO. Furthermore, both culinary traditions have important similarities, such as the extensive use of vegetable oils.

The significant increase in restaurants specializing in French, Italian, and Spanish cuisine is driving olive oil consumption in Mexico. This phenomenon, coupled with a growing interest in healthy eating, predicts continued market growth.

Advantages of the agreement with the EU

The new trade agreement between the European Union and Mexico directly benefits Spanish olive oil by:

- Eliminating tariffs on the vast majority of goods

- Simplifying bureaucratic procedures for exporters

- Recognizing and protecting 300 EU designations of origin

- Recognizing the EU as a "single entity" in trade terms

Consequently, these advantages further open the doors to a strategic market with 127 million potential consumers.

South Africa: An African market with logistical and commercial potential

South Africa represents a strategic gateway to the African continent for the olive oil sector in Spain, with substantial growth potential despite its still nascent market.

Current Situation of the South African Market

The South African olive oil market has maintained a flat growth trend over the past five years, significantly impacted by the COVID-19 crisis, from which it is still recovering. Despite having nearly 60 million inhabitants, the real addressable market is limited to between 3 and 5 million consumers (5-8% of the population), mainly due to pronounced social and income inequalities.

Spain enjoys a privileged position as one of the main suppliers, along with Italy, Portugal, and Greece. Spain's presence is strong, with well-known brands such as Borges and Carbonell widely present in South African supermarkets.

95% of South African olive oil is extra virgin, but local production barely covers 40% of total consumption, forcing imports of the remaining 60%. This imbalance between supply and demand creates significant opportunities for Spanish exporters.

Geographical Advantages for Spanish Exporters

South Africa serves as a gateway for commercial entry, re-exportation, and distribution to the countries of the Southern Cone of Africa. This strategic position allows Spanish exporters to access additional markets through a single commercial transaction.

The South African distribution system has a dual structure: on the one hand, the informal system (small shops and street vendors) and, on the other, the modern, formal system (supermarkets and chains) where olive oil sales are concentrated.

Healthy Consumption Trends in the Country

Furthermore, the growing concern for a healthy lifestyle and diet favors olive oil consumption. As the standard of living rises and the population learns about the benefits of olive oil, its consumption increases.

However, significant challenges remain. Price remains a barrier, pushing some consumers toward more affordable alternatives such as avocado oil. Furthermore, olive oil competes at a disadvantage with other vegetable and seed oils that are exempt from VAT.

To maximize opportunities, Spanish exporters must compete on price, diversify their offerings, and strengthen the promotion of Spanish origin.

Conclusion

The analysis of these eight emerging markets reveals a promising future for the Spanish olive oil sector in 2025. During our exploration, we have identified clear trends that cut across continents and cultures. First, growing health concerns are driving olive oil consumption in markets as diverse as Japan, China, and India. Second, the demographic potential is overwhelming: these eight markets represent more than 3 billion potential consumers.

Although each market presents specific challenges, Spain has undeniable competitive advantages. Our position as a world leader in production, the perceived quality of our oils, and recent favorable trade agreements strategically position us to capitalize on these opportunities. In particular, our already consolidated leadership in South Korea (71.4%) and Mexico (80-90%) demonstrates the viability of conquering distant markets.

Adaptation is emerging as a decisive factor for success. Small formats triumph in Japan, while mild flavors are more popular in Brazil. Likewise, digital strategies are crucial in China, where local influencers can transform product perception.

Clearly, conquering these markets will require coordinated efforts between producers, exporters, and public institutions. However, the potential will more than offset this investment. A modest increase in per capita consumption in countries like China or India would exponentially multiply our exports.

These eight markets represent much more than just commercial destinations. They constitute the foundation for ensuring the sustainable growth of the Spanish olive oil sector over the coming decades, diversifying risks and reducing our dependence on already saturated traditional markets.